On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. "The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge." My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. " Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk." Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. "Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas-Hurricane Irene-that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast-the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999-but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. ![]() Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. "Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England If that timing works out, the storm could hit at high tide, which could add 5 feet of water to a potential 10-5 foot storm surge.īelow, some eye openeing (and rather alarming) discussion form hurricane expert Jeff Masters and other sources. What's worse, the later tracks bring a Category 2 Irene near or along the Jersey Shore, and perilously close to a rare direct hit on New York City late Sunday. This is a big deal, and a major hurricane landfall in North Carolina is now almost certain Saturday. The major development today is that the forecast tracks for Irene have shifted slightly west. The storm is so large that squalls in spiral rain bands are spinning though Florida. Irene is already showing the expected intensification as it moves out of the northern Bahamas. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE.950 MB.28.05 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT.NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.22 KM/H ![]() SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT.2100 UTC.INFORMATIONĪBOUT 575 MI.930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ![]() ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND.NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 First, the latest on Irene late Thursday.
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